SportsLine model projects Thunder as favourites in Game 2 NBA Western Conference finals
The Oklahoma City Thunder are listed as 7.5-point favourites for Game 2 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference finals, with SportsLine’s algorithm simulating the matchup 10,000 times to inform betting markets.
SportsLine’s projection model has released betting predictions for Game 2 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. The model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, projects the Thunder as 7.5-point favourites and recommends betting on the Under for the total points line of 217.5. The prediction follows the Spurs’ double-overtime victory in Game 1, driven by Victor Wembanyama.
The Thunder entered the conference finals as the top seed in the Western Conference, having swept the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers in their previous two playoff series. In contrast, the Spurs defeated the Thunder in double overtime in Game 1. Tip-off for the second contest is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the teams are projected to combine for 210 total points, with the Under hitting in 61% of simulations. The model notes that the Under hit in three of five regular-season meetings between the two franchises. While the Over has hit in six straight Spurs games and seven of eight Thunder games, the model highlights that defense ruled in Game 1, with the Spurs and Thunder shooting 42.7% and 40.6% respectively.
In terms of individual performance, the model projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the Thunder with 29.2 points, while Victor Wembanyama is projected to lead the Spurs with 25.5 points. Four Spurs players are projected to score 13 points or more, compared to just three Oklahoma City players. De'Aaron Fox, who missed Game 1 due to an ankle injury, remains questionable for Game 2.
The SportsLine model claims to have returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. It entered the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a 26-10 record, representing a 72% success rate on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. The Thunder are listed as 7.5-point favourites by FanDuel Sportsbook.
