SportsLine model projects Scheffler as CJ Cup favourite despite Coody longshot value

Mike McClure’s SportsLine computer model has simulated the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson 10,000 times, projecting defending champion Scottie Scheffler as the betting favourite at +165. The tournament is scheduled to commence on Thursday, May 21, at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, with first tee times at 8 a.m. ET. The simulation results, sourced from FanDuel odds, suggest a clear hierarchy among the top contenders, with Brooks Koepka listed as the fourth favourite at +2500.

The model has identified Pierceson Coody as a significant longshot opportunity, projecting him as a top-five contender at +4000 odds. Analysts point to Coody’s off-the-tee performance as a critical factor for the course layout, noting his 26th-ranked strokes gained in that category and 14th-ranked average driving distance on tour. The 27-year-old Texan has recorded seven top-25 finishes this season, including two top-10s, marking what is described as his strongest professional campaign to date.

Conversely, the model is fading Jordan Spieth, projecting he will finish outside the top five despite his familiarity with the TPC Craig Ranch layout. Spieth is currently priced as the third favourite at +1600, but the algorithm cites a lack of recent momentum, noting he has not recorded a top-10 finish since the 2025 Memorial Tournament. Although he has finished inside the top 20 in both majors this year, the model remains unconvinced by his current form compared to the rest of the field.

Si Woo Kim ranks as the second favourite at +1500, while no other golfer is priced lower than +3300, leaving a wide spread of longshots available for consideration. The SportsLine model, which claims a historical record of predicting 17 major championships including five consecutive Masters titles up to 2026, suggests that the field strength may be impacted by several top PGA Tour players opting to skip the event. Dallas-area natives Scheffler and Spieth remain in the field despite these absences.

The simulation results offer a detailed projected leaderboard for use in daily fantasy sports and betting markets. While the model highlights Coody’s driving metrics as a key advantage, it also identifies other longshots with potential value, including one player priced around 70-1. All odds are subject to change, and the model’s projections are based on proprietary data analysis rather than independent verification of the tournament outcome.