SportsLine model projects Scheffler and McIlroy as top Open Championship contenders
DFS pro Mike McClure’s algorithm, which claims 17 major wins, favours the defending champion and the Northern Irishman while advising against betting on Wyndham Clark.
SportsLine has released its betting odds and computer model predictions for the 2026 Open Championship, scheduled to take place at Royal Birkdale Golf Club. Scottie Scheffler is the +700 favourite to defend his title, having won the previous year's event. Rory McIlroy is the second favourite at +850, aiming to become the 12th golfer to win seven major championships. The predictions are based on a computer model developed by DFS professional Mike McClure, which claims to have correctly predicted 17 major winners and simulated the tournament 10,000 times.
The model advises against betting on Wyndham Clark (+3300) due to his poor performance record at majors other than the U.S. Open. While Clark has secured victories in the U.S. Open, his record at the other three majors is sparse, with only one top-20 finish in 13 combined starts. Royal Birkdale features over 100 bunkers, making precision paramount over distance. Clark ranks 83rd in driving accuracy and 65th in greens in regulation, metrics that the model suggests make him a poor value bet at this venue.
Other top-five favourites include Tommy Fleetwood (+1500), Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600), and Jon Rahm (+2200). The model notes that while Scheffler has never finished outside the top 25 in five Open starts, his opening round scoring has declined this year, ranking 34th compared to leading the tour in the previous three seasons. Despite this, his overall metrics, including strokes gained: total and birdie average, remain unparalleled on the PGA Tour.
McIlroy’s history at Royal Birkdale includes a fourth-place finish in 2017, but the model highlights his recent inconsistency at the Open, with three top-10s and three finishes of 46th or worse in his last six starts. A victory would tie him with Harry Vardon for the most major championships won by a British golfer. Jordan Spieth is listed as a +8000 longshot, having won the Open at Royal Birkdale in 2017.
The release of these odds comes as Americans have won each of the last three British Opens, a streak not seen since 2003-06. The model’s projections aim to identify value among the field, which includes longshots such as Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, while flagging specific players like Clark as fades based on statistical analysis of course suitability and recent form.
