SportsLine model projects run total for Cubs-Pirates clash

SportsLine’s computer model has released predictions for the Major League Baseball match between the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday, May 25, 2026. The model projects the Over on the total runs line of 8, estimating 9.2 combined runs, and identifies value on the money line, though specific team selections are gated behind the SportsLine platform. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

The Chicago Cubs, currently on an eight-game losing streak, will face the Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The Cubs (29-24) are mired in a losing streak after being swept in six consecutive home games against the Milwaukee Brewers and Houston Astros. Pittsburgh (27-26) is returning home following a 3-3 road trip to St. Louis and Toronto.

Ben Brown (1-2 record, 2.09 ERA) is set to start for the Cubs against Pirates pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski (4-3 record, 3.96 ERA). The model projects over 1.6 total bases for Cubs players Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. The model projects over 1.5 total bases for Pirates players Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds.

Historical data cited indicates the 'Over' has hit in 10 of 15 (66.7%) Pirates home games when the line is 8 or 8.5. The model reports a 12-1 record on top-rated MLB picks entering Week 9 of the season. The over/under for total runs is 8, with the Under having hit in four straight Cubs games before their 8-5 loss on Sunday to the Astros.

Chicago is a slight -112 favorite on the money line while Pittsburgh is at -104 in the latest odds. The model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and projects 9.2 combined runs as the Over hits in 54% of simulations. The model also says one side of the money line has all the value, with specific picks available on the SportsLine platform.