SportsLine Model Projects High-Scoring Finale as Cardinals Seek Sweep Against Mets
St. Louis enters with six consecutive wins, but New York remains the money-line favourite as the SportsLine Projection Model highlights offensive potential for both clubs.
The SportsLine computer model has released its betting predictions for the Major League Baseball series finale between the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Mets on Thursday, June 11, 2026. The Cardinals (37-28) travel to Citi Field to face the Mets (29-38), with first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. The model projects a high-scoring contest, forecasting the total runs to go over 9 with a combined projection of 10.1 runs. New York is listed as the -151 favourite on the money line.
St. Louis enters the game with significant momentum, having won six straight games overall and both matches in the current set. The Cardinals secured a 7-0 shutout on June 9 and followed with a 9-2 victory on Wednesday. Historically, the Cardinals have won six of their last seven meetings with New York. Conversely, the Mets are looking to avoid the sweep, with Christian Scott (2-0, 2.50 ERA) set to start on the mound against St. Louis pitcher Hunter Dobbins (1-0, 2.77 ERA).
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and enters Week 12 of the season on a 19-7 run on all top-rated MLB picks. The model also noted strong performance in 2025, where it excelled at home run prop picks, returning nearly 30 units of profit. For this specific matchup, the model indicates that one side of the money line has "all the value," though it does not specify which team in the provided data.
Offensive projections highlight specific player contributions for both clubs. The model projects three Cardinals players to exceed 1.6 total bases, with Alec Burleson leading at 2.09 total bases. For the Mets, three players are also projected to go over 1.6 total bases, with Jared Young leading the way at over 1.76 total bases. The model states the Over hits 58% of the time in this simulation.
Trends support the high-scoring prediction, with the total going Over in the last game between these two teams. Three of the last five games have gone Over the total for the Cardinals, while two of the last three games have gone Over for the Mets. The over/under for total runs is set at 9, aligning with the model’s 10.1 run projection.
