SportsLine Model Projects High-Scoring Affair for Cubs-Cardinals Rivalry
St Louis enters as slight favourite, but projection model highlights pitching vulnerabilities for both starters
SportsLine’s projection model has released its assessment for the Major League Baseball contest between the Chicago Cubs and the St Louis Cardinals, scheduled for Sunday, 31 May 2026. The game, part of the Sunday Night Baseball broadcast, will be held at Busch Stadium in St Louis with first pitch set for 7:20 pm ET. The model’s analysis suggests a high-scoring environment, recommending a wager on the over for total runs, which is currently set at 8.5.
The simulation, which runs 10,000 iterations for every MLB game, projects a combined total of 9.2 runs for the matchup. This figure is driven by strong offensive expectations for both clubs, particularly given the pitching assignments. St Louis is listed as the slight favourite on the money line at -117, while Chicago is priced at -102. The model indicates that value lies on one side of the money line, though specific selection details require access to the full SportsLine report.
Pitching statistics form a significant portion of the model’s rationale for the over projection. St Louis will start Matthew Liberatore, who holds a 2-3 record with a 4.76 ERA. Liberatore has struggled with contact this season, allowing more hits than only five other National League pitchers. The over has gone 7-4 in his starts, suggesting a propensity for run production when he is on the mound.
Chicago will counter with Jordan Wicks, who is making his second appearance of the year. Wicks has yet to secure a win, holding a 0-1 record with a 16.62 ERA. In his only previous start, he allowed eight earned runs over 4.1 innings. The model notes that both lineups are projected to exploit the starting pitchers, reinforcing the case for a high-total outcome.
Recent form further supports the projection. The Cubs have covered the over in four of their last five games and hold a 7-2 record in the over during their last nine road games. St Louis has also been involved in high-scoring affairs, having lost the season opener to Chicago 6-5 on Friday before Chicago won Saturday’s meeting 6-1. The two franchises have met more than 2,500 times in MLB history, with Chicago holding a slight historical edge in 51% of those meetings.
SportsLine’s model enters Week 10 on a 14-4 run with its top-rated MLB picks. The system also reported strong performance in 2025, generating nearly 30 units of profit on home run prop picks. The Cubs currently sit at 32-27, while the Cardinals are at 30-26. Chicago has posted a 9-6 record against St Louis since the start of the previous season.
