SportsLine model projects high-scoring affair for Canadiens-Sabres Game 7
Buffalo enters as slight favourite against Montreal, with data suggesting a total goal count exceeding the market line.
The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres are set to contest Game 7 of their 2026 NHL second-round playoff series on Monday night at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. The victor will advance to the Eastern Conference finals to face the Carolina Hurricanes. The series has shifted significantly since Montreal held a 2-1 lead, with Buffalo securing an 8-3 victory in Game 6 to force the decisive matchup.
SportsLine’s Projection Model, which utilises 10,000 simulations to forecast outcomes, has released its analysis for the contest. The model projects a combined total of 6.6 goals for the game, recommending a bet on the Over for the 5.5-goal line. According to the data, this outcome occurs in 62 per cent of the simulations.
The Sabres are currently listed as -121 favourites in the latest SportsLine consensus odds. This valuation reflects their recent momentum, having won two of the past three games in the series after previously trailing. The model’s entry into the second round of the 2026 playoffs has reportedly yielded a +668 return on top-rated money-line NHL picks.
Specific player projections from the model highlight Montreal’s Cole Caufield, who is forecast to record 0.56 goals and 0.46 assists. Buffalo’s Tage Thompson is projected to contribute 0.54 goals and 0.53 assists. Goaltending metrics suggest Jakub Dobes will make 23.3 saves while allowing 3.22 goals, whereas Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to make 19.3 saves and allow 3.03 goals.
Historical trends support the high-scoring projection, with the Over hitting in four of the last six head-to-head matchups between the teams. Additionally, the Over has appeared in three of Montreal’s last four games and five of Buffalo’s last nine contests. The Sabres also finished the regular season with the fifth-best scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.42 goals per game.
