SportsLine model backs Under for Thunder-Spurs Game 5
With the series tied 2-2, the model’s 10,000-game simulations suggest the total points will fall below 216.5, as Oklahoma City navigates a depleted roster.
The SportsLine Projection Model has released its betting recommendations for Game 5 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals, favouring the Under on the total points line of 216.5. The model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, indicates a 61 per cent hit rate for this selection in its recent data runs.
The series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs is currently level at 2-2, with each team securing a victory on home court. Game 5 is scheduled for Tuesday night at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, with tipoff set for 8:30 p.m. ET.
Oklahoma City enters the contest with significant injury concerns that may influence the game's pace and scoring output. Jalen Williams, who missed Games 3 and 4 due to a hamstring issue, is listed as questionable. Additionally, Ajay Mitchell remains out with a calf injury, further limiting the Thunder's available rotation.
Historical trends within the series support the model’s caution on the total. While the Over hit in the first three games, the Under made a strong showing in Game 4, which finished with 185 points against a line of 219.5. The Under also prevailed in three of the five regular-season matchups between the two franchises.
The model projects a relatively low-scoring affair, forecasting only three Thunder players to score over 12 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the team with 25.7 points, while Stephon Castle is projected for 16.7 points. For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama is the primary offensive threat, projected to score 29.2 points, with only two other teammates forecast to reach double figures.
Current market odds from FanDuel Sportsbook have Oklahoma City favoured by 4.5 points. The SportsLine model notes that one side of the spread offers value, though it directs users to its platform for the specific selection. The model has returned over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons.
