SportsLine expert targets home run props for MLB Thursday slate
With wind conditions favouring power hitters and pitching rotations showing vulnerabilities, the SportsLine analyst highlights specific player prop opportunities for the May 14 schedule.
SportsLine MLB expert Adam Thompson has released a selection of home run player prop bets for the Major League Baseball schedule on Thursday, May 14. The recommendations focus on specific pitching matchups and environmental conditions that Thompson believes will influence offensive output for the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays.
Thompson advises backing Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson to hit a home run against the Chicago Cubs. Olson has recorded 14 home runs this season, leading the Braves and ranking fifth in MLB. Notably, eight of those home runs have travelled to centre field or near it. Wind conditions are expected to blow straight out to centre field for the Thursday night matchup, a factor Thompson cites as favourable for Olson’s power profile.
The Braves are set to close out a three-game sweep of the Cubs, with left-hander Chris Sale expected to start for Atlanta. The Cubs are expected to go with right-hander Ben Brown, who has only lasted four innings once in his recent outings and typically goes two frames. This rotation strategy places heavy reliance on the Cubs' bullpen, which has allowed the seventh-most home runs this season. In May alone, only the Cincinnati Reds have allowed more home runs from the bullpen.
Thompson also suggests backing Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco Adames to hit a home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Adames has not hit a home run in May and has only three for the season, but he has hit 30-plus home runs in each of the previous two seasons. He has recorded five hits through three games at Dodger Stadium and holds more road home runs than any other team member.
Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan has allowed six home runs in seven starts. Wind at Dodger Stadium is expected to blow out to centre by first pitch. The Braves rank No. 1 in runs scored and No. 2 in home runs, while the Giants, mentioned in the broader schedule context, rank 29th and 30th in those categories respectively. Thompson rejoined SportsLine in 2026 after a stint as a betting analyst for Gambling.com Group and has been up over 70 units in MLB over the past two seasons.
