SportsLine expert targets Alonso and Davis for home run props on May 28
Analytics-driven betting analyst highlights Pete Alonso’s historical success against Patrick Corbin and Bryan Davis’s recent form against Colin Rea.
SportsLine expert Adam Thompson has identified New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Bryan Davis as top home run prop bets for Thursday, May 28. The recommendations are grounded in specific matchup analytics for a six-game MLB schedule, which features only four games starting after 4 p.m. ET.
Thompson, who rejoined SportsLine in 2026 after working with the Gambling.com Group, has recorded over 70 units in profit across MLB betting in the past two seasons. He advises backing Alonso against Toronto Blue Jays left-hander Patrick Corbin, citing Alonso’s .365 batting average and 1.172 OPS in 52 career at-bats against Corbin.
The Pirates catcher has certainly not matched expectations as a former No. 1 overall pick out of the 2021 MLB Draft. He was a solid hitter in college and nearly as good in the minor leagues, but it hasn't translated to success in The Show. In four seasons, he's batting .176, and this year it's a brutal .139. He does have four home runs, and two of those were in the past four games. As for the matchup, Cubs starter Colin Rea has allowed eight home runs, the Chicago bullpen has allowed the sixth-most HRs over the past two weeks and there's a wind blowing out at 10 mph expected for the 6:40 p.m. ET start.
Thompson advises backing Bryan Davis against Chicago Cubs starter Colin Rea, noting Rea has allowed eight home runs this season and the Cubs bullpen has allowed the sixth-most home runs over the past two weeks. Weather conditions for the Pirates-Cubs game (6:40 p.m. ET start) include a 10 mph wind blowing out.
The recommendation coincides with a six-game MLB schedule featuring pitchers such as Paul Skenes and Chris Sale. Notable pitchers on the mound include Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes and Atlanta’s Chris Sale, creating matchups that may be less favourable for home run betting. Patrick Corbin has had a solid season with the Blue Jays, contrasting with his previous five seasons with the Washington Nationals and Texas Rangers where he was often considered an 'auto-fade'.
