SportsLine expert Magliocca backs Cody Bellinger and Cubs for Monday MLB home run props

SportsLine expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca has released his home run prop picks for the MLB slate on Monday, 4 May. The analyst, who has reported profitability of 133.4 units over the 2022 to 2025 seasons, identifies Chicago Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger as his primary selection. Magliocca recommends Bellinger to hit a home run against Houston Astros pitcher Shane Baz at Yankee Stadium.

The expert's recommendation relies on specific matchup data and recent form. Bellinger narrowly missed a home run in Sunday's game, having hit two at Yankee Stadium the day prior. Magliocca notes that Bellinger hit a 99 mph exit velocity home run off Baz last year and has historically succeeded against the right-handed pitcher. Additionally, the weather in the Bronx is described as providing a sizable boost to the home run hitting environment.

Magliocca also identifies two additional Cubs players, Ballesteros and Busch, as potential home run hitters for the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field. For Ballesteros, the expert specifically recommends the "At Bat" home run prop due to the risk of him being pinch-hit for if a left-handed reliever enters the game. Magliocca notes that Ballesteros has recorded six home runs in fewer than 100 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season.

The conditions at Wrigley Field are highlighted as a significant factor for the Cubs game. Sports meteorologist Kevin Roth estimates that wind speeds of 15+ mph blowing out provide a better than 50% boost to home run probabilities. Magliocca adds that warming temperatures and potential rain later in the game are expected to increase humidity, creating a favourable hitting situation.

Regarding the matchup for Busch, the expert observes that the left-handed hitter is not likely to be pinch-hit for if a lefty comes into the game. Busch has not hit a home run since April 23 and is currently in a drought. Magliocca suggests that the current weather conditions at Wrigley Field are even better for home runs than the last time the Cubs played in this type of environment.

The article references a previous matchup where Bellinger hit a home run off Baz at Steinbrenner Field, noting the dimensions were similar to Yankee Stadium. Magliocca also points out that Bellinger has hit all five of his home runs in the Bronx thus far, suggesting the ballpark and weather play to his advantage. The expert concludes that these factors support his selections for the Monday slate.