SportsLine expert backs Chourio and Vierling for Friday’s MLB home run props
Analysis highlights Jackson Chourio’s recent offensive surge against Andrew Painter, while Matt Vierling’s historical splits against Tanner Bibee drive a second key recommendation for June 12.
SportsLine analyst Matt Severance has released his MLB home run prop selections for Friday, June 12, focusing on specific matchups where recent performance trends and historical data suggest value. The recommendations centre on Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio and Detroit Tigers outfielder Matt Vierling, with Severance noting his track record of profitability over the past four MLB seasons.
Chourio is highlighted for his current offensive form, having slashed .343/.368/.743 with four home runs and eight RBIs over the past seven days. The 22-year-old enters the contest against the Philadelphia Phillies on a two-game home run streak, with both occurrences taking place in Las Vegas. Severance points to Chourio’s 1.190 OPS in June as evidence of sustained power, despite the player being limited to 32 games earlier in the season due to an injury.
The opposing pitcher, Andrew Painter, presents a significant vulnerability for the Brewers’ lineup. The Phillies rookie right-hander holds a 1-7 record with a 6.21 ERA and has allowed 11 home runs in his appearances. His struggles are particularly pronounced on the road, where he is 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA and a .356 opponents’ batting average. This marks Painter’s first career start against Milwaukee.
In the American League, Severance identifies Detroit Tigers outfielder Matt Vierling as a strong candidate against Cleveland Guardians starter Tanner Bibee. While Vierling’s overall season statistics show a .205 batting average and a .612 OPS, Severance’s primary criterion for these selections is the batter’s career splits against the specific pitcher. Vierling has hit two home runs in 15 at-bats against Bibee.
Bibee, who holds a 1-7 record and a 4.09 ERA, has surrendered 13 home runs in 14 starts this season. Although the right-hander recently threw eight shutout innings in a win, his overall performance has been marked by high home run totals. Severance also notes Detroit’s Gleyber Torres, who is batting .364 in June, as a potential alternative pick for the same game.
