SportsLine analyst backs Under 2.5 goals in 2026 World Cup final
As Spain and Argentina prepare for Sunday’s final in New Jersey, betting expert Martin Green cites defensive solidity and resilience as key factors in an Under 2.5 total goals outcome.
Sports betting analyst Martin Green of SportsLine has released his prediction for the 2026 World Cup final, favouring an Under 2.5 total goals outcome for the match between Argentina and Spain. The fixture is scheduled for Sunday at 3 p.m. ET in East Rutherford, New Jersey, marking the 15th overall meeting between the two nations, who have previously recorded six wins each and two draws.
Green is currently on a 20-9 winning streak with his World Cup selections, a run that has yielded a positive return of 904. His recent form extends to the Champions League, where he holds an 18-8 record over his last 26 picks, returning nearly $1,000 in profit. This track record underpins his analysis of the final, where he identifies Spain’s defensive dominance and Argentina’s resilience as the primary drivers for a low-scoring contest.
Spain enters the final riding a 37-match unbeaten streak and is listed as the tournament favourite at -154 on FanDuel Sportsbook. The European side has outscored opponents 13-1 in the tournament, recording six clean sheets and maintaining a defensive record of just four goals conceded since World Cup qualifying began last September. Green notes that while Argentina has outscored their opponents 19-7, they have yet to face a defensive unit of Spain’s calibre.
Argentina, meanwhile, is seeking to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to win back-to-back World Cups. They defeated England 2-1 in the semi-final in Atlanta, with Lautaro Martinez scoring the winner in stoppage time. Green acknowledges the threat posed by Lionel Messi, who has scored eight goals in seven games this tournament, placing him two goals behind top scorer Kylian Mbappe. Fifteen of Messi’s 21 World Cup goals have been scored since his 35th birthday.
For the 90-minute money line, FanDuel Sportsbook lists Spain at +130, Argentina at +260, and a draw at +195. The over/under for total goals is set at 2.5. Green cites Argentina’s “never-say-die attitude” and their enduring chance to win any game with Messi in attack as critical factors, alongside Spain’s tactical discipline, in his recommendation for the Under 2.5 total goals market.
