SportsLine analyst backs over in 2026 NBA Finals opener as Spurs host Knicks

SportsLine analyst Larry Hartstein has released his betting predictions for Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals, where the San Antonio Spurs host the New York Knicks. The Spurs enter the series as 4.5-point favourites at home, with the total points line set at 218.5. Hartstein recommends betting the over, citing strong recent scoring trends for both franchises.

The 2026 NBA Finals marks a rematch of the 1999 series, which the Spurs won in their inaugural appearance, while the Knicks have not returned to the Finals since. The Spurs, who finished the season with a 62-20 record as the West's 2-seed, face the East's 3-seed Knicks, who posted a 53-29 record. Game 1 is scheduled for Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio.

Hartstein’s analysis highlights significant scoring trends supporting the over. The over has hit in four of the Knicks' last five games and ten of the Spurs' last twelve contests. New York also holds a rest advantage, with the over recording a 6-2 record in their last eight games following four-plus days of rest.

Historical data between the two franchises further supports a high-scoring outlook. The over was hit in seven of the last nine regular-season meetings, and in two of their three matchups this season, which averaged 235.3 combined points. The home team has also won each of the last nine regular-season meetings between these two teams.

Personnel updates add complexity ahead of the opener. Knicks head coach Mike Brown confirmed that Mitchell Robinson arrived in San Antonio without a splint on his right hand due to a finger injury, though his availability for Game 1 remains unknown. Hartstein, who is 100-69 over his last 169 NBA picks, has directed readers to the SportsLine website to view his specific spread and player prop selections.