Spain tipped to defeat France in penalty shootout at 2026 World Cup final
Predictions identify Spain as favourites to win the expanded 48-team tournament, with Norway projected as the primary outsider to reach the semifinals.
An ESPN analyst has released comprehensive predictions for 103 of the 104 matches scheduled for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, utilising Elo ratings sourced from the DTAI Analytics Lab at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium. The tournament, which commences on 11 June, marks a significant expansion to 48 teams and 104 matches, representing a 38.5 per cent increase in fixtures compared to the previous iteration.
The model forecasts Spain as the likely tournament winner, predicting they will defeat France in the final via a penalty shootout following a 3-3 draw. Spain enters the competition with the highest Elo rating of 1979, while France holds the third-highest rating at 1939. The prediction accounts for the complex knockout format, where round-of-32 matchups are determined by group positions and a separate draw, creating 495 different permutations for the early knockout stages.
Norway is identified as the primary outside contender, projected to reach the semifinals. The model cites the team’s strong recent form, including a plus-40 goal differential in competitive matches since 2024, and their possession of top-tier attacking talent. Conversely, Portugal is forecast to exit in the group stage, described as a notable early exit for a high-rated team managed by Roberto Martinez.
The predictions also highlight the challenges posed by the expanded field, particularly for teams in groups with uneven strength disparities. For instance, Mexico is predicted to finish top of Group A with 1800 Elo rating, while South Africa is expected to finish last with zero points. The analyst noted that the new format makes it difficult to predict exact knockout pairings until all group stage games are concluded.
Other notable projections include Switzerland and Canada both finishing with seven points in Group B, with Switzerland advancing on goal differential. In Group D, the United States Men’s National Team is predicted to finish top of the group despite having a lower rating than Türkiye, due to the difficulty of the other teams in the group. The analyst omitted the third-place playoff from the predictions, citing personal preference.
