SpaceX shares face liquidity test as $116 billion lock-up expires
The rocket maker’s stock has fallen 30% since its June 2026 debut, raising questions about price stability as supply increases and valuation multiples remain elevated.
SpaceX shares are set to become available for secondary market trading on 6 August, marking the expiration of the lock-up period for pre-IPO shareholders. The release coincides with the company’s first quarterly earnings report as a publicly listed entity, creating a potential convergence of supply and sentiment. Approximately 911.5 million shares, valued at roughly $116 billion, may enter the market, a move that could significantly impact liquidity and share price stability.
Since its initial public offering on the Nasdaq on 11 June 2026, where shares opened at $150 following a $135 IPO price, the stock has declined by approximately 30%. The impending expiry of the lock-up period has drawn comparisons to Tesla’s historical price action. When Tesla’s lock-up expired in December 2010, shares dropped about 15% due to thin holiday volume, although long-term investors were subsequently rewarded with strong compound annual growth over the following years.
Financially, SpaceX has demonstrated significant revenue expansion, growing from $10.4 billion in 2023 to $18.7 billion in 2025. Operating cash flow improved to $6.8 billion in 2025, supported by a cash position of $24.7 billion and limited short-term debt. However, profitability has been volatile; the company reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, and Q1 2026 results showed a widened net loss of $4.3 billion despite revenue expanding more than 15% year-on-year to $4.7 billion.
Capital expenditure has surged in recent years, reaching $20.7 billion in 2025, with artificial intelligence-related spending becoming the leading area of investment at $12.7 billion. In Q1 2026, connectivity services remained the dominant revenue source, contributing $3.3 billion of the $4.7 billion total, while the AI segment contributed $818 million and the space segment added $619 million.
Valuation metrics remain high, with SpaceX trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 82.7 times, well above the sector median. Despite the recent price correction, analyst consensus maintains a "Moderate Buy" rating with a mean target price of $231.83, implying 101% upside from current levels. Liquidity is expected to increase further by the end of the year, with 5.3 billion shares potentially available for trading.
