Situational Awareness LP Takes Bearish Position in ASML Amid High NA EUV Cost Concerns
Hedge fund bets against semiconductor equipment giant as major foundries delay adoption of $400 million lithography systems.
Situational Awareness LP, the hedge fund managed by Leopold Aschenbrenner, has declared a new position in ASML Holding N.V. in filings for the first quarter of 2026. The stake, which represents a new addition to the fund’s 13F portfolio, consists of put options covering approximately 375,000 shares. The move signals growing caution among investors regarding the near-term demand for ASML’s most advanced semiconductor equipment.
The investment decision aligns with concerns raised by short-sellers over the steep pricing of ASML’s High Numerical Aperture (High NA) Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines. While standard EUV systems cost between $180 million and $200 million per unit, the new High NA models carry a price tag of nearly $380 million to $400 million. Critics argue this cost structure is hitting an economic brick wall, potentially straining the return on investment for chip foundries.
Major customers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), have indicated they will rely on existing, heavily optimised Low NA EUV equipment for upcoming advanced nodes through late 2026 or 2027. Rather than purchasing High NA units at scale, these foundries are extending the lifecycle of current assets, which short-sellers suggest could lead to a vacuum in High NA orders and create risk for ASML’s order book.
ASML provides essential lithography solutions for the development, production, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company’s next leg of growth has long depended on major clients such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung transitioning to these ultra-advanced High NA machines. However, the delay in adoption challenges the multi-year projections that have historically supported ASML’s revenue forecasts.
While ASML remains a cornerstone of the global semiconductor supply chain, the current hesitation from key customers highlights the capital expenditure pressures facing the industry. As foundries navigate the high costs of next-generation technology, the market is closely watching whether ASML can maintain its growth trajectory or if the High NA segment faces a prolonged period of subdued demand.
