Sharp money diverges from public sentiment ahead of USMNT World Cup opener
As the United States men’s national team prepares for their 2026 World Cup debut against Paraguay, a clear split has emerged between retail wagering trends and institutional risk management.
The United States men’s national team is set to open their 2026 World Cup campaign on Friday night at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, facing Paraguay in the Group D opener. While the general betting public is heavily backing the home side to secure a victory in their World Cup debut on home soil, professional bettors are taking a contrarian position, backing Paraguay to cover the spread.
Sportsbooks have established the USMNT as a +110 favourite on the three-way line, with Paraguay listed at +280 and a draw at +220. The disparity in market confidence is stark across major platforms. At BetMGM, 88% of wagers and 90% of the money placed as of Friday morning were on the United States to win. A similar trend was observed at DraftKings, where 92% of bets and over 70% of the betting action were directed toward the USMNT.
Despite the overwhelming retail support for the United States, the professional betting community, often referred to as "sharps," is backing Paraguay plus half a goal. Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, confirmed this divergence in a statement to Yahoo Sports on Friday afternoon, noting that the sharp money is on Paraguay while the public remains on the USA side as expected.
Market indicators also suggest a cautious outlook on the total number of goals scored. The over/under for the match is set at 2.5 goals, with the juice for the under moving significantly from -130 to -185. This shift indicates that institutional money is leaning toward a lower-scoring affair, contrasting with the public’s enthusiasm for a decisive USMNT win.
The two nations previously met in an international friendly on 15 November, a match the USMNT won 2-1. Gio Reyna opened the scoring in the fourth minute, and striker Folarin Balogun secured the victory with a second-half goal in the 71st minute. This fixture marks the beginning of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the first tournament hosted across three nations—United States, Canada, and Mexico—and the first to expand the field to 48 teams.
