Scotiabank lifts Vale price target to $18 on copper growth outlook
The upgrade comes as Vale reports strong first-quarter production figures, with iron ore output rising 3 per cent year-on-year and base metals volumes climbing double digits.
Scotiabank analyst Alfonso Salazar has raised the firm’s price target for Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) to $18 from $16.50, while maintaining a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The revision, announced on 27 May 2026, follows the publication of the Vale Base Metals Asset Handbook, which prompted the bank to incorporate copper growth assumptions into its valuation model.
The move mirrors a similar adjustment by JPMorgan earlier in the month. On 22 May 2026, JPMorgan raised its Vale price target to $19.50 from $18.50, maintaining an Overweight rating and updating its own company model. The convergence of analyst views suggests a shifting sentiment around the miner’s diversified asset base, particularly regarding its base metals segment.
Vale’s operational performance in the first quarter of 2026 provided a fundamental backdrop for the upgrades. The company reported iron ore output of 69.68 million metric tons, an increase from 67.67 million tons in the prior year. Production totals reached 69.7 million tons, representing a 3 per cent year-on-year rise, supported by record output at the S11D and Brucutu operations and the continued ramp-up of the Capanema and VGR1 projects.
Base metals production also saw significant gains. Copper output reached 102.3 kilotonnes, up 13 per cent year-on-year, while nickel production rose 12 per cent to 49.3 kilotonnes. Pellet production increased by 14 per cent to 8.2 million tons, and iron ore sales grew 4 per cent to 68.7 million tons. Vale continues to produce iron ore and nickel across its global footprint, which includes operations in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania.
Despite the positive operational data and analyst upgrades, some market commentary maintains a cautious stance on the broader investment case. While Vale is categorised by some sources as an undervalued growth stock, competing editorial analysis suggests that artificial intelligence stocks may offer greater upside potential with lower downside risk, highlighting the divergent views on capital allocation in the current market environment.
