Schwartz backs Texans to claim 2026 AFC South crown

FOX Sports analyst Geoff Schwartz has identified the Houston Texans as the frontrunner to win the AFC South in the 2026 NFL season. In his latest assessment, Schwartz places his confidence in the team’s defensive unit, which ranked first in yards allowed per game and second in points allowed during the 2025 campaign. He argues that this defensive foundation provides a stable platform for the team to compete at the highest level.

The prediction relies heavily on the continued strength of the Texans’ defence, which Schwartz describes as "wildly good" based on its 2025 performance. The unit returned nearly all of its key personnel and added further depth through the draft. Schwartz notes that the defence generated significant pressure with limited personnel and maintained high efficiency, suggesting it will remain a top-tier unit in the upcoming season.

Head coach DeMeco Ryans, who has led the Texans for three seasons, is credited with building a disciplined and physical squad. Under his guidance, the team secured division titles in 2023 and 2024 before finishing one game short of the title in 2025. Schwartz views Ryans’ tenure as a stabilising factor, noting that the team’s culture makes it a reliable contender in the division.

The primary question surrounding the Texans is the performance of quarterback C.J. Stroud and the offensive unit. The 2025 season was characterised by inconsistency, with the offence ranking in the middle of the pack for total yards but struggling on third and fourth down. The rushing attack was particularly weak, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, which placed the team 29th in the league.

Schwartz believes the Texans have addressed these concerns through the offseason. The team reinforced its offensive line via free agency and draft selections, aiming to provide better protection for Stroud. With the return of offensive coordinator Nick Caley and the addition of running back David Montgomery, Schwartz expects an improved offensive structure that will allow Stroud to play within his strengths rather than forcing complex plays.

In comparison to their divisional rivals, Schwartz favours Houston over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans. He notes that the Jaguars face a tougher schedule, including three games against first-place teams, while the Colts are returning from injury with quarterback Daniel Jones. The Titans are viewed as having little chance of winning the division, despite some positive signs in their running game, as reports indicate struggles for quarterback Cam Ward in camp.