Rose’s Open Championship campaign in jeopardy after seven-over-par start

Justin Rose has found himself on the wrong side of the leaderboard at the 2026 Open Championship, carding a seven-over-par score in the first round at Royal Birkdale. The 45-year-old Englishman, who teed off as a pre-tournament favourite, struggled with consistency, recording seven bogeys despite conditions that appeared more conducive for scoring than in previous Opens held at the northwest coast venue.

The performance places Rose in immediate danger of missing the cut, a scenario that has occurred only once since his sole major victory at the 2013 U.S. Open. His record at the Open Championship since that triumph has been strong, including two second-place finishes, but the current standing leaves him outside the projected safety margin as Round 1 action continues.

Live projections from Data Golf indicate the cut line currently sits at one-over-par. The statistical model suggests a 27.9 per cent probability that the line remains at this level, but there is a 36.8 per cent chance it will rise to two-over-par after the second round. Additionally, there is a 20.2 per cent chance the cut line could climb further to three-over-par.

The stakes are high for the 156-player field, with more than half set to be eliminated following Friday’s second round. Only the top 70 golfers and ties on the leaderboard after 36 holes will advance to the weekend. The tight margins mean that even established names are vulnerable to the course’s demands and the competitive pressure of the early tee times.

Rose’s return to Royal Birkdale holds historical significance, as it is the course where he initially burst onto the international golfing scene as a 17-year-old amateur in 1998. However, the nostalgia of the venue has not translated into an early advantage, with the former champion needing a significant improvement in Round 2 to ensure his place in the tournament.