Racing analyst Michelle Yu releases betting predictions for 2026 Kentucky Derby

Racing analyst Michelle Yu has released her betting predictions for the 152nd Kentucky Derby, scheduled to take place on Saturday, May 2, 2026, at Churchill Downs in Louisville. The annual Run for the Roses is set to post at 6:57 p.m. ET, with the field featuring a mix of established contenders and longshots. While Renegade enters the race as the favourite at 4-1 following his victory in the Arkansas Derby, Yu advises bettors to exercise caution with this selection.

Yu specifically flags Commandment, who carries 6-1 odds, as a risk due to concerns over his closing speeds in longer distances. The analyst notes that the horse won the Florida Derby despite a slowdown from the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but argues the additional distance at Churchill Downs could allow the horse to fall behind. Furthermore, Yu points to historical data suggesting jockey Luis Saez has not finished in the top two in any of his 12 Kentucky Derby starts, a factor she believes is critical given the horse's tendency to slow down as the race progresses.

In contrast to the favourites, Yu identifies The Puma as a strong 10-1 longshot who drew the No. 9 post. The Gustavo Delgado-trained colt has demonstrated consistency, finishing in the top three in all four races since his maiden win in January, including a victory at the Tampa Bay Derby. Yu highlights the horse's sire, Essential Quality, noting his strong pedigree and previous success in the Belmont Stakes, suggesting The Puma is well-positioned to challenge at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Bob Baffert enters the race with two horses, Potente and Litmus Test, looking to continue his legacy as the trainer of the last two Triple Crown winners. Potente is listed at 20-1, while Litmus Test carries 30-1 odds. Yu's recent track record includes correctly predicting winners in the 2025 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Saudi Cup, San Felipe Stakes, Arkansas Derby, and Churchill Downs Stakes, as well as hitting exactas and trifectas in major prep races.

Yu's top pick for the 2026 Kentucky Derby is a specific double-digit longshot she describes as the "forgotten horse." She characterises this runner as "screaming for more ground" and suggests that bettors should include this horse in their wagers. Although the specific name of the horse is not disclosed in the available reporting, Yu's inclusion of such a longshot reflects her strategy of looking beyond the front-runners for value.

The analysis comes as the betting lines are finalised for the event. Yu's previous success in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, where she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds that cashed at 18-1 when Rich Strike won, underscores her willingness to back underdogs. Her latest picks are available through SportsLine, where she details her construction of wagers for the upcoming race.