Palou secures pole as SportsLine model flags Dixon for 2026 Indy 500
The 110th running of the Indianapolis 500 features Alex Palou on pole, with a SportsLine simulation identifying Scott Dixon as a key value pick amid shifting team dynamics for Conor Daly.
The 110th running of the Indianapolis 500 is scheduled for Sunday at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, with the green flag set to drop at 12:45 p.m. ET. Reigning champion Alex Palou has secured the pole position and stands as the favourite at +250 odds. Palou claimed the title last year, ending Josef Newgarden’s bid for a three-peat, and enters the field as the top-ranked contender for the 2026 race.
A SportsLine predictive model, developed by data engineer Mike McClure, has identified four-time winner Scott Dixon as a surprising selection for the event. The model, which simulates races 10,000 times, highlights Dixon at +1600 odds based on his historical consistency and track familiarity. Dixon holds 14 top-10 finishes in his Indy 500 career, trailing only three drivers all-time, and finished third in 2024. He currently rides for Chip Ganassi Racing, which won the race last year and holds the second-most victories in the event's history.
The model also predicts a difficult outcome for Conor Daly, who is listed at +750 odds. Daly is competing as a non-regular entrant with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing, a team that has never won the Indianapolis 500 and recorded its best finish of fourth in 2012. Although Daly achieved four consecutive top-10 finishes in previous starts, he did not race a single IndyCar Series event in 2026 after Juncos Hollinger Racing announced he would not return to the team.
Other notable contenders include Pato O’Ward at +600, who is targeting the race following back-to-back top-three finishes, and Josef Newgarden at +1000. Katherine Legge is attempting "The Double" by competing in both the Indy 500 and the NASCAR Coca-Cola 600, entering as a +30000 longshot. Four-time winner Helio Castroneves is also in the field at +3000 odds.
The SportsLine model has a track record of identifying winners, having recorded 29 NASCAR winners since 2021 and correctly predicting 11 winners in 2025. The simulation takes into account factors such as track history and recent results to project the leaderboard for the 33 drivers competing over 200 laps for the Borg-Warner Trophy.
