Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan stakes potentially reach $11.6 billion ahead of SpaceX IPO
The pension fund’s 2019 investment could yield a 5,100% return if SpaceX hits its $1.75 trillion valuation target, though analysts warn of significant pricing risks.
The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) is poised to realise a substantial valuation jump following the initial public offering of SpaceX. The Canadian pension fund, which manages retirement savings for 346,000 teachers, originally invested approximately $220 million in the aerospace company in 2019. At that time, SpaceX was valued at roughly $35 billion. With the company targeting a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion for its debut, the OTPP’s stake is projected to be worth up to $11.6 billion.
This potential outcome represents a return of more than 5,100% on the original capital. The investment has already begun to impact the fund’s broader performance, contributing to a 30% surge in the OTPP’s venture-growth portfolio in 2025. The gains highlight the wealth creation potential that can occur before a company reaches the public markets, a feat achieved by less than 0.1% of listed US stocks over any rolling ten-year window, according to analysis by Baillie Gifford of Morgan Stanley data.
SpaceX conducted its initial public offering on the Nasdaq in June 2026, priced at $135 per share. The company raised approximately $75 billion during the debut, valuing the firm at approximately $1.77 trillion. Shares opened trading at $150 and rose to $172 in early trading, cementing CEO Elon Musk’s status as a paper trillionaire. The IPO coincided with modest gains in US equity markets and a drop in oil prices, driven by reports of an interim peace deal between the United States and Iran.
Despite the optimistic pricing, market analysts have expressed caution regarding the valuation. Analysts at Morningstar have suggested the company may be worth substantially less than its IPO target, pegging it at $63 a share. This estimate represents a 53% discount to the reported launch price of $135 per share, highlighting the uncertainty that often surrounds fast-growing technology firms.
The OTPP’s experience with SpaceX underscores the risks inherent in concentrated venture bets. The same pension fund previously invested $95 million in the crypto exchange FTX, which was written down to zero following the platform’s collapse. While the SpaceX investment may prove to be one of the most successful in the fund’s history, the contrast with the FTX loss illustrates the volatility of alternative investments and the importance of portfolio diversification.
