ONEOK Raises 2026 Guidance Despite Missing Q1 Earnings Consensus

ONEOK, Inc. reported first-quarter earnings on April 28, 2026, revealing a divergence between its bottom line and operational cash flow. The company posted earnings per share of $1.23, which fell short of the analyst consensus estimate of $1.32. However, the miss in net income did not reflect the underlying performance of its core assets, as adjusted EBITDA rose significantly to $1.997 billion from $1.775 billion in the same period the previous year.

Chief Executive Officer Pierce Norton attributed the quarterly results to year-over-year volume growth and continued operational execution across the company's integrated asset base. He noted that strong performance across multiple segments, combined with a constructive market backdrop, is improving the outlook for the remainder of the year. This positive sentiment has encouraged major financial institutions to revise their valuations of the stock.

Following the earnings release, ONEOK adjusted its forward-looking targets for fiscal 2026. The company raised its net income guidance to a range of $3.21 billion to $3.79 billion. Concurrently, it increased its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion. These upward revisions were made while maintaining capital spending guidance at approximately $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion, indicating a commitment to infrastructure investment despite the earnings miss.

The market reaction to the guidance update was positive, with several Wall Street analysts raising their price targets on the stock. Scotiabank increased its target to $92 and maintained an Outperform rating, citing that higher commodity prices are having a more muted effect on fiscal 2026 earnings than previously feared. Similarly, Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $113 while keeping an Overweight rating, as part of a broader update on North American midstream and renewable infrastructure.

ONEOK continues to operate as a key provider of gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage, and marine export services within the US energy infrastructure market. The company's strategy appears to be betting on stable upstream development activity and the resilience of its midstream operations against potential external headwinds. Investors are now focusing on whether the company can sustain the operational execution required to deliver on its expanded guidance.

While the discrepancy between the missed EPS and rising EBITDA suggests potential non-recurring items or accounting adjustments affecting the bottom line, the company remains focused on its core infrastructure business. The consensus among analysts, bolstered by the recent upgrades, is that the fundamental value of ONEOK's assets remains intact, supported by the company's ability to navigate the current fiscal environment effectively.