NFL overtime coin toss leaves coaches weighing possession against information
A simulation favours receiving first, but the limited record of games under the revised rules does not settle the strategic debate.
The NFL’s guarantee that both teams receive the ball in overtime has changed the coin-toss decision. Coaches must choose between taking possession first and playing defence first, when they can see how many points they need to win.
Indianapolis Colts coach Shane Steichen chose to kick against Kansas City, saying Patrick Mahomes influenced the decision. He wanted his team to know the target and have four downs to pursue it.
The choice proved costly. Both teams opened with field goals, then Kansas City won on its second possession with Harrison Butker’s 40-yard field goal.
Since the revised format was adopted for the playoffs in March 2022 and extended to the regular season in 2025, 20 games have gone to overtime. Teams winning the toss chose to kick in 14. Teams that received first have an 11-8-1 record, a small sample that cannot establish which choice is better.
A study published in The Journal of Sports Analytics used a Monte Carlo simulation of 100,000 overtime games. Researcher Dylan Goings found that receiving first produced a 53.14 per cent win rate. The result offers a model-based estimate, not proof of a real-world advantage; its implications depend on the simulation’s assumptions.
