Motley Fool analyst projects Nvidia could double to $10 trillion valuation by early 2028
Wall Street estimates point to $548 billion in fiscal 2028 revenue, underpinning a bullish case for Nvidia to surpass its current $5.4 trillion market capitalisation within 18 months.
Keithen Drury, an analyst at The Motley Fool, has outlined a scenario in which Nvidia doubles its market capitalisation to $10 trillion by early 2028. The prediction hinges on the company maintaining a valuation of 34 times trailing earnings, a multiple Drury considers fair given the firm’s growth trajectory and dominance in the artificial intelligence sector. Currently valued at $5.4 trillion, Nvidia would need an 85% rise to hit the $10 trillion milestone, a feat Drury argues is achievable within 18 months.
The bullish outlook is anchored by projected capital expenditure from major AI hyperscalers. Four primary providers have forecast combined spending of $650 billion for 2026, with analysts suggesting this figure could exceed $1 trillion in 2027. Nvidia’s graphics processing units remain the preferred computing hardware for AI training, benefiting directly from the construction of data centres housing hundreds of thousands of processors. Drury notes that Nvidia typically captures a significant portion of this planned infrastructure spending.
Financial estimates from Wall Street support the revenue growth required to justify the higher valuation. For the fiscal year ending in January 2027, analysts project Nvidia will generate $391 billion in revenue. Looking further ahead to fiscal 2028, the consensus estimate rises to $548 billion. This top-line growth is expected to drive earnings per share to $12.66, representing a 94% increase from the $6.53 recorded over the past 12 months.
Drury compares Nvidia’s current valuation to peers such as Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet, which trade at similar price-to-earnings ratios of 38, 31, and 27 respectively. He argues that Nvidia’s 34 times multiple is reasonable given its market position. While the stock recently experienced a 6% decline to close at $205.10 amid broader tech sell-offs triggered by rate fears and a revenue guidance miss from Broadcom, the long-term thesis remains focused on sustained earnings expansion.
Despite the optimistic forecast, Nvidia was not included in The Motley Fool’s current list of 10 best stocks for investors. The publication highlighted historical successes, noting that a $1,000 investment in Nvidia when it appeared on the list in April 2005 would have grown to over $1.2 million by June 2026. Drury maintains that the stock’s growth rates, driven by hyperscaler demand, offer significant return potential with relatively low risk compared to market averages.
