Miami Dolphins project as second favourite for fewest wins in 2026
With key departures on both sides of the ball and a challenging schedule, betting markets indicate the Dolphins face a significant uphill battle to reach five victories in the upcoming season.
The Miami Dolphins are entering a comprehensive rebuild for the 2026 NFL season, following the departure of head coach Mike McDaniel, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and top receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. According to reporting from CBS Sports, the franchise has appointed Jeff Hafley as the new head coach and retained Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator, with the team expected to be led by running back De’Von Achane and new starting quarterback Malik Willis.
Betting markets currently project the Dolphins as the second favourite for the fewest wins in the league, trailing only the Arizona Cardinals. The team’s win total suggests a 50 per cent probability of reaching five victories, with the franchise widely considered an underdog in most fixtures. A home game against the New York Jets is identified as the only likely victory, although a sweep of the Jets could still leave Miami with just four wins.
Hafley faces a substantial task in improving a defense that finished 27th in pass yards per play and 28th in rush yards per play last season. The interior of the defensive line remains largely intact, but the team must navigate significant changes at edge rusher alongside Chop Robinson, while linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dodson face competition from rookies Jacob Rodriguez and Kyle Louis. First-round pick Chris Johnson is noted as the biggest addition to the secondary.
On offence, Slowik is tasked with building around Willis, who joined the Dolphins on a three-year, $67.5 million deal. The passing game lacks established weapons, with last year’s top three receivers replaced by complementary players Tutu Atwell and Jalen Tolbert, alongside three rookies drafted in Round 3 or later. While the offence finished fourth in yards per rush last season, analysts suggest that without a competitive defense, a quality rushing attack may not be sufficient to stack wins.
The 2026 schedule presents additional challenges, with the Dolphins facing every AFC West and NFC North team, as well as third-place matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers. Aside from Week 1 against the Las Vegas Raiders, the schedule includes difficult trips to Buffalo, Denver, Green Bay, and New England in the back half of the season. Historically, the Dolphins have not fallen short of five wins in any season since a 1-15 performance in 2007, making a sub-five win season one of the worst in franchise history.
