Meta directs development of standalone prediction market app 'Arena'
The social media giant is building a points-based prediction tool independent of its main feeds, following a surge in trading volumes across rivals like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Mark Zuckerberg has directed Meta to develop a standalone prediction market application, internally codenamed 'Arena', according to a report by The New York Times. The project is managed by a small, independent team within the company and has been characterised by insiders as a top priority for the CEO. The proposed application is designed to operate independently of Meta’s existing social media platforms, although those platforms may direct users to the new service.
The initial concept for Arena is described as experimental and does not involve real-money wagering. Instead, the platform will utilise a video-game-style interface where users earn points for making correct predictions on various topics. Sources indicate that monetary features could be introduced at a later stage, though the current focus remains on the points-based model.
This initiative follows a significant surge in the prediction market industry, with platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi reporting trading volumes reaching tens of billions of dollars as of April. Other social media entities have sought to capitalise on this growth, including X, which forged a partnership with Polymarket last summer. Meta has a history of adopting popular features from competitors, such as Snapchat’s Stories and TikTok’s vertical video feed, leveraging its extensive user base across Facebook and Instagram to capture market share.
The sector has concurrently faced increasing legal scrutiny and regulatory challenges in the United States. Several US states have sued prediction markets over alleged violations of gambling laws, while the current administration has sued states in response. Legal cases have also spiked, including investigations into alleged insider trading involving a former special forces soldier and former US representative George Santos.
The timeline for a public launch of the Arena app has not been specified. It remains uncertain whether the platform will eventually incorporate monetary features or remain strictly points-based. The specific scope of the experimental phase and the extent to which Meta’s social media platforms will direct traffic to the app are also not fully detailed.
