Martinez defies metrics, retains Ronaldo in Portugal World Cup squad

Portugal manager Roberto Martinez has continued to select 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo as a starter for the 2026 World Cup, a decision that contradicts statistical analysis suggesting the veteran forward hinders the team’s attacking efficiency. Metrics indicate that Portugal scores fewer goals when Ronaldo plays, with critics arguing that his positioning and shot selection reduce opportunities for teammates. The choice to maintain the status quo appears driven by the potential backlash from Ronaldo’s supporters and the fear of alienating the star player, echoing previous conflicts involving former coach Fernando Santos.

Captain Ruben Dias defended Martinez’s selection ahead of the match against Uzbekistan, framing the scrutiny as a standard feature of major tournaments rather than a specific indictment of Ronaldo. Dias stated that while the veteran is a major focus, the entire squad operates under intense examination. He emphasised that the current environment is consistent with his tenure, suggesting that the manager is managing a complex dynamic where criticism is distributed across the team rather than targeted solely at one individual.

Statistical evidence from the opening match against DR Congo highlights the tactical friction. Data from Gradient Sports revealed that half of Portugal’s 26 crosses were aimed at Ronaldo. In that game, Ronaldo took three of the team’s seven shots, accounting for 0.46 of Portugal’s total 0.65 expected goals. Thierry Henry, speaking on Fox’s broadcast, pointed to a specific tactical error where Ronaldo crowded the penalty area with Bruno Fernandes, negating a clear scoring opportunity for his teammate and illustrating the opportunity cost of his presence on the pitch.

The debate centres on whether Martinez is seeing a tactical advantage or avoiding the political fallout of dropping the club’s most famous player. Ronaldo, who plays for Al-Nassr, has struggled in high-stakes matches, scoring only one penalty in the last three major tournaments. His previous manager, Fernando Santos, was sacked after Portugal’s defeat to Morocco in the 2022 World Cup, following a period where Santos had benched Ronaldo against Switzerland, leading to a post-tournament refusal by Ronaldo to speak to the coach.

The logical alternative within the squad is Goncalo Ramos, who has shown promise at Paris Saint-Germain and in previous World Cup appearances. Ramos profiles as a forward who suits Portugal’s needs, allowing creative players like Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha to operate without excessive service. However, the fear of triggering a reaction from Ronaldo’s vocal online community, and the potential for similar internal discord, remains a powerful deterrent for Martinez, who appears to be prioritising squad stability over statistical optimisation.