Makerfield byelection and leadership challenge dynamics
The resignation of MP Josh Simons opens a path for the Manchester mayor, but NEC approval and parliamentary rules complicate the timeline for a potential contest.
Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Manchester, has been offered a route back to Parliament through the Makerfield byelection following the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons. This development has significantly increased speculation regarding a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Burnham stated he wishes to return to Westminster to “make politics work properly for people,” while Simons cited a loss of public trust and the need for radical political reform as his reasons for stepping down.
For the byelection to proceed, the Labour chief whip must move the writ in the House of Commons. Once this is done, the election must be held between 21 and 27 working days later, typically on a Thursday. If the writ is issued in the coming days, the vote could take place as early as 18 June or 25 June. However, Burnham requires formal permission from the Labour National Executive Committee (NEC) to stand. The NEC previously blocked him from contesting the Gorton and Denton byelection, a seat Labour subsequently lost to the Greens.
The political landscape in Makerfield is highly competitive. Labour’s majority in the constituency was narrow at 5,399 votes in the 2024 general election, and Reform UK won all nine local council wards in the area during recent local elections. A Compass survey of over 1,000 Labour members conducted just before the 7 May local elections indicated that 42% would support Burnham as Starmer’s successor, compared to 11% for Wes Streeting.
A leadership challenge requires backing from at least 81 Labour MPs, representing 20% of the party’s parliamentary party. If Starmer faces a challenge, he remains on the ballot; if he wins, he retains the premiership. If he resigns, a caretaker Prime Minister would serve until a new leader is elected. The winner of the leadership contest becomes Prime Minister without a general election, provided they maintain the confidence of the House of Commons.
As of Friday morning, no candidates have formally confirmed a leadership challenge. Potential contenders include Streeting, former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, energy secretary Ed Miliband, and defence minister Al Carns. Downing Street insists Starmer will fight any effort to oust him, while commentators suggest the soft left could coalesce around a single candidate to secure the necessary parliamentary support.