MAC report warns settlement reforms may deter high-earning migrants

A comprehensive analysis by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has identified that higher-earning immigrants are the demographic most likely to depart the United Kingdom, a finding that complicates the government’s proposed tightening of settlement rules. The report, titled Who Stays, Who Leaves?, tracked approximately 900,000 migration journeys between 2014 and 2024 to assess long-term patterns, labour shortages, and fiscal impacts.

The study indicates that migrants with salaries of £125,000 or more are the most likely income group to leave the country. The MAC suggests these individuals may benefit from more global opportunities and lower financial barriers to moving elsewhere, which reduces their incentive to remain in the UK long-term. Conversely, the analysis found that migrants earning the lowest wages are the most likely to stay, with those in health and social care demonstrating high commitment to remaining in the country.

These findings raise significant questions regarding Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s proposal to extend the qualifying period for settled status from five years to ten years. While the government’s proposals include discounts for certain criteria, such as being a higher-rate taxpayer, which could reduce the wait back to five years, the MAC warns that stricter rules may further deter high earners. The committee noted that groups with lower stay rates under current policy, including higher earners and those in higher education, could be more susceptible to being discouraged by a less generous settlement offer.

Retention rates varied significantly across other demographics and sectors. The report found that 94 per cent of nurses remained after five years, and 81 per cent of migrants under the age of 45 stayed, compared to 65 per cent for those aged 45 or over. In contrast, natural and social science professionals, predominantly academics, showed the lowest stay rates at 57 per cent, a trend the MAC attributed to short-term contracts and internationally mobile career paths.

Geographic and gender disparities were also evident in the data. London recorded the highest retention rates among regions, while Scotland and Wales recorded the lowest. Migrants from African and South Asian countries demonstrated the highest stay rates, whereas those from North America, Oceania, and East Asia had the lowest. Women were approximately five percentage points more likely to remain after five years than men, a difference the report linked to higher employment in the health and social care sectors. The MAC concluded that retaining younger workers and those in the care sector is vital for broader societal and fiscal impacts, noting that younger workers have more of their tax-paying lives ahead of them.