Labour’s Makerfield bid reframes power dynamics ahead of byelection

The political centre of gravity has shifted from Westminster to Wigan as Andy Burnham leads the Labour campaign in the Makerfield byelection. Hundreds of MPs and activists have made the pilgrimage to the constituency, with queues of 20 MPs waiting to canvass outside the Stubshaw Cross community centre. This mobilisation coincides with pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey, marking a significant departure from the traditional Westminster-centric campaign model.

Burnham’s strategy focuses on winning over approximately 16% of undecided voters, a demographic strategists note has narrowed following recent media appearances. Campaign directives instruct MPs to identify themselves as being from “Andy Burnham’s campaign” rather than the Labour Party when engaging with residents. This branding shift aims to position Burnham as a reformist leader capable of challenging Reform UK, a narrative that some colleagues view as a potential transfer of influence within the party.

The ground operation is managed by a group of female operators, including Louise Haigh, Anneliese Midgley, and Sally Jameson, replacing the previous power brokers associated with Starmer’s leadership. With 450 volunteers canvassing over the weekend, the campaign plans to knock on every door in the constituency five times by the end of the week. The effort is driven by an admission of fear regarding the volume of eager volunteers, with constituency parties sending busloads of supporters and staff staying in local gardens.

Competition comes from Reform UK and Restore Britain, the latter led by Rupert Lowe. Restore has established a significant visual presence with turquoise boards, and Labour canvassers believe the party could secure more than 10% of the vote. Voters are attracted to Lowe’s positions on animal welfare and school holidays, as well as his remigration and pro-death penalty policies, which have gained traction on social media. The area has a historically significant far-right vote, including approximately 7% for the British National Party in 2010.

Internal concerns exist among MPs that a victory driven by a split on the right may cast doubt on Burnham’s narrative of being the only Labour politician who can beat Reform UK. Despite this, Burnham held a three-hour town hall meeting on Tuesday with more than 100 attendees, aiming to physically engage with the 13,000 undecided voters. The campaign message remains focused on hope and economic reform rather than direct attacks on rival parties.