Kalshi launches regulated prediction markets for 2026 FIFA World Cup
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated platform offers trading on group stages, knockout rounds, and specific player awards, with France currently priced as the tournament favourite.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has launched trading contracts for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, marking a significant expansion of its regulated event offerings. The tournament, hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, commences on 11 June, with markets covering group stages, knockout rounds, and specific outcomes such as the tournament champion and Golden Boot winner. Kalshi operates under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is available in all 50 states, Washington D.C., and U.S. territories, although sports contracts remain unavailable in Nevada.
The platform utilises a share-based pricing model where users purchase Yes/No event contracts at prices ranging from $0.01 to $0.99. If the predicted outcome occurs, shares pay out at $1.00. For instance, France is currently the favourite to win the tournament at $0.17 per share, followed by Spain at $0.166 and England at $0.109. Users can toggle a "sports fan mode" within the application settings to view these prices in traditional American odds rather than share values.
Kylian Mbappé is the favourite to win the Golden Boot at $0.16 per share, reflecting his status as the leading scorer from the 2022 tournament. He is followed by Harry Kane at $0.12, while Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are priced at $0.05 each. Other contenders include Raphinha and Lamine Yamal, both at $0.04, and American forward Christian Pulisic at $0.01. The Golden Boot is awarded to the player who scores the most goals throughout the duration of the tournament.
The tournament structure involves 12 four-team groups, with the top two teams from each group and eight wild card teams advancing to the single-elimination knockout rounds. The United States Men's National Team kicks off their campaign on 12 June at SoFi Stadium against Paraguay. The final is scheduled for 19 July at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, where a half-time show curated by Chris Martin will feature headline acts Madonna, Shakira, and BTS.
New users can claim a $10 trading bonus after making $10 worth of trades using the referral code CBSSPORTS. Kalshi emphasises risk management tools, including trading breaks and voluntary opt-outs, while noting that event contract trading involves significant risk. The platform remains the largest prediction market trading site in the United States, subject to federal regulation and state-specific eligibility requirements.
