Jody Demling releases 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, fading morning-line favourite
The 152nd Run for the Roses is set for Saturday at Churchill Downs, with analyst Jody Demling offering a contrarian view on the field ahead of the race.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby season is scheduled to commence on Saturday, May 2, with the race taking place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Horse racing analyst Jody Demling has released his official predictions for the event, offering a distinct perspective on the field ahead of the 6:57 p.m. ET start time.
Demling, who correctly forecast the top three finishers in the 2025 Kentucky Derby and has recorded 12 Derby-Oaks doubles over the last 17 years, identifies Commandment, Renegade, and Further Ado as the primary contenders. Despite Renegade being the morning-line favourite at 4-1, Demling advises bettors to fade the horse, citing specific concerns regarding its recent form and draw.
The analyst points to Renegade's history of losing to Paladin twice as a significant negative factor, noting that it took the horse until its fourth career race to record a first victory. Furthermore, Renegade has drawn the inside rail, a position no horse has won from at the Kentucky Derby since 1986. These structural disadvantages have led Demling to conclude that the Todd Pletcher-trained colt faces too many obstacles despite its recent wins at the Arkansas Derby and Sam F. Davis Stakes.
In contrast to the fading of the favourite, Demling highlights The Puma as a "super intriguing" longshot at 10-1 odds. The horse, which barely lost to Commandment in the Florida Derby and secured a victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, is described by the expert as a potential "freak" with a strong chance to hit the board or win the race.
Commandment enters the contest on a four-race winning streak and is listed at 6-1 odds, while his half-brother Renegade and Further Ado are also positioned as key players in the field. The 2026 edition marks the 152nd running of the Run for the Roses, an event that has not seen a Triple Crown winner since Justify in 2018.
Demling's full projected leaderboard and detailed betting picks are available through his coverage on SportsLine, where he continues to provide analysis on the upcoming Triple Crown season.
