Inner London councils face fragmentation as Green Party challenges Labour dominance
The collapse of the traditional progressive vote in boroughs including Camden threatens Labour's majority and could result in councils with no overall control
The Green Party is capitalising on a significant decline in Labour support to challenge the party's entrenched dominance in inner London boroughs. This shift is particularly acute in Camden, the constituency of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, where polling suggests the Greens could secure the Hackney mayoralty and emerge as the largest party in the area.
While the Greens make inroads, Labour faces substantial pressure in other traditional strongholds, including Lambeth and Lewisham. The rise of smaller parties alongside the Greens has led to a fragmentation of the progressive vote, threatening Labour's majority in Camden and potentially resulting in several councils ending up with no overall control.
Data indicates that Labour's vote share in London has fallen by 15 points since 2024. This lost support has been seized almost entirely by smaller parties, with Green support increasing by 10 points and Reform UK up six points. The Liberal Democrats appear to be the only traditional party likely to avoid the fate of the mainstream, holding comfortable leads in their south-west London strongholds.
In Camden specifically, Labour holds 45 of the 55 seats but faces a complex contest involving the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and independent candidates. It would require a uniform swing of 19% to another party for Labour to lose its majority, though the race involves five parties and carries a high element of unpredictability.
Local activists report voters expressing visceral opposition to Keir Starmer personally, citing specific local failures such as a lack of food recycling bins and leaking boilers. Richard Olszewski, Labour's leader of Camden council, has switched to running for a different seat to avoid the time commitment of defending his previous one against Liberal Democrat challenges.
Prof Tony Travers of the LSE notes that stitching together governance in councils with no overall control could provide clues for future general election coalition deals. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party anticipates tough results but could retake control of Wandsworth council and make gains in Westminster.