Hamlin Favourite as Nashville Superspeedway Race Approaches Amidst Model Predictions
Points leader Tyler Reddick is listed at +700 despite statistical projections suggesting a lower finish, while defending champion Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson trail at +750.
The 2026 Cracker Barrel 400 at Nashville Superspeedway is set for Sunday at 7 p.m. ET, with Denny Hamlin installed as the betting favourite at +390. Hamlin tops the odds board despite never having won at the venue previously. Points leader Tyler Reddick follows as the second favourite at +700, while defending race winner Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell are listed at +750.
Advanced modelling by professional DFS player Mike McClure projects Hamlin as the top pick, while fading Reddick despite his championship standing. McClure’s model, which simulates every lap of NASCAR action 10,000 times, has recorded 11 winners in 2025 and 29 winners since 2021. The model predicts Reddick will barely crack the top 10.
Reddick’s recent form has cooled after a blistering start to the season, where he won five of his first nine races but has been winless in his last four starts. His career average finish at Nashville is 15.6, and his team, 23XI Racing, has recorded only one top-five finish in its last nine starts at the venue. Additionally, Reddick has previously raced at Nashville in the Xfinity Series, never finishing better than 14th.
Chase Elliott (+1900) is projected to make a strong run, citing his 2022 victory at Nashville and strong performance on intermediate and large ovals, where he holds a 13.1 average finish. Elliott is currently fifth in the points standings and is one of only two drivers, alongside Reddick, with multiple wins this season.
Daniel Suarez is identified as a longshot at +5000 following a win in the previous week. Three other longshots with odds over +2000 are being backed by the model, though specific names are not disclosed in the source text. The Nashville Superspeedway race has seen different winners in each of its five years of existence, with Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsport securing four of those victories.
