Expert analyst Matt Severance identifies key home run prop opportunities in Friday's MLB slate
Analysis released by Matt Severance highlights specific pitcher-batter splits and venue conditions, though weather forecasts remain a variable for the 15-game schedule.
Expert analyst Matt Severance has released his primary home run prop recommendations for the Major League Baseball slate scheduled for Friday, May 8. The central recommendation focuses on New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto, who is expected to face Phoenix's Ryne Nelson. This selection relies heavily on Nelson's struggles at home, where the right-hander holds a 14.40 ERA and has surrendered four home runs in 10 innings across three starts. Conversely, Soto has historically performed well against Nelson, recording three hits in 12 at-bats with two home runs and a triple.
Despite the favorable matchup against Nelson, Severance notes that Soto's overall season has been hampered by injury, limiting him to just 22 games so far. The outfielder has managed only four home runs in that span and is currently batting .174 this month with a slugging average of .391. While Soto ended a five-game drought recently, that specific home run was achieved at Coors Field, a venue known for inflating power numbers, which casts some doubt on his current form against average parks.
A secondary suggestion from Severance involves Angels shortstop Zach Neto facing Chicago White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease. The recommendation is grounded in Neto's strong historical splits against the White Sox ace, who has allowed only one home run in 38.1 innings generally. However, Neto has recorded two home runs in seven at-bats against Cease specifically, resulting in an impressive OPS of 1.786. This statistical advantage suggests a viable opportunity despite Cease's high strikeout rate, which often limits balls in play.
Current form presents a mixed picture for Neto, who has failed to record a hit in 18 consecutive at-bats as of Tuesday. His last home run occurred on April 10, and he has managed only six home runs in 38 games during the 2026 season. The analyst notes that Neto possesses significant power potential, having hit 26 home runs in the previous season, but the recent drought adds a layer of uncertainty to the play.
Weather conditions are expected to complicate the betting landscape for the 15 games scheduled for Friday. Forecasts indicate less than ideal conditions, with windy spots predicted in the Midwest and along the East Coast. Although these factors could theoretically suppress home run totals, the general trend suggests that increased temperatures will lead to higher power numbers as the season progresses. All scheduled games are forecast to proceed regardless of the weather.
Severance, who has posted a profit of $1,681 over the past four MLB seasons, emphasises that while specific props are available, a more conservative approach might involve betting on Over 1.5 total bases. This alternative is particularly relevant given the injury-plagued nature of the Soto campaign and the variable performance of other key players like Francisco Lindor, whose return to the Mets lineup could further impact offensive output.
