ESPN analysis projects Detroit Lions as favourites for 2026 division turnaround
A new ESPN Football Power Index assessment ranks the eight NFL teams that finished last in their respective divisions during the 2025 season by their likelihood of securing a division title in 2026.
ESPN has published a comprehensive ranking of the eight NFL teams that finished in last place in their respective divisions during the 2025 season, assessing their probability of winning their divisions in the 2026 campaign. The analysis utilises ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), a predictive model that combines betting market win totals with internal metrics such as quarterback depth and special teams ratings.
The Detroit Lions hold the highest probability of a turnaround at 38.2 per cent, followed by the New Orleans Saints at 19.3 per cent and the New York Giants at 11.6 per cent. The analysis identifies these three franchises as the most likely to leap from last place to first in their divisions, citing factors such as schedule strength, injury history, and underlying performance metrics.
The Detroit Lions are positioned as the clear favourites for a division title, with ESPN noting they finished the previous season ranked third in both FPI and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). The publication highlights that Detroit maintained a winning record and was only one win away from finishing second in the NFC North, despite suffering the most defensive injuries of any team in the league. Their projected schedule is ranked 27th in difficulty by the average projected DVOA of their opponents, offering a more favourable path than their division rivals.
The New Orleans Saints rank second in the turnaround projections at 19.3 per cent, entering their second season under head coach Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. ESPN points to improving trends in the latter half of the 2025 season, where the Saints’ defense rose to eighth in DVOA. The analysis also notes the NFC South’s historically low winning standards, with the division champion finishing 9-8 or worse in three of the past four seasons, which may aid New Orleans’ chances.
The New York Giants sit third at 11.6 per cent, with projections heavily dependent on second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart’s development. The Giants selected wide receiver Malik Nabers and running back Cam Skattebo in the 2026 draft, aiming to bolster an offense that has struggled. ESPN also notes the appointment of John Harbaugh as head coach, drawing parallels to previous successful turnarounds by the Bears and Patriots following similar quarterback leaps.
Further down the list, the Tennessee Titans are ranked fourth at 5.6 per cent, with rookie quarterback Cam Ward, the No. 1 pick in 2025, expected to anchor the offence. The Las Vegas Raiders follow at 1.5 per cent, with their prospects hinging on whether rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza can replicate the success of previous first-year quarterbacks like C.J. Stroud. The New York Jets (1.2 per cent) and Cleveland Browns (1.1 per cent) are also included, with the Browns facing significant challenges due to the absence of defensive star Myles Garrett and persistent offensive struggles.
The Arizona Cardinals are ranked last with a 0.1 per cent chance of winning their division, a projection driven by a roster depleted by injuries and a notoriously difficult NFC West schedule. ESPN notes that the Cardinals led the NFL in adjusted games lost last season and face three of the league’s top teams in the Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers. The Cleveland Browns also share the lowest probability at 0.1 per cent, hampered by a lack of offensive consistency and uncertainty at the quarterback position.
The FPI model explicitly accounts for variables such as the difference between a team’s starting and backup quarterback, as well as special teams ratings. ESPN cautions that while the model provides a data-driven framework, unexpected developments, such as a breakout rookie season or significant injury recoveries, can alter outcomes. The publication references the Houston Texans’ rise from 3-13-1 in 2023 to first place in 2024 as an example of how unforeseen factors can drive dramatic turnarounds.
The rankings cover all eight last-place finishers from the 2025 season, offering a structured view of the NFL’s potential landscape for 2026. The analysis underscores the volatility of the league, where statistical projections often clash with the human element of player development and coaching adjustments.
