Eclipse Ventures Realises $2.5 Billion Return on Cerebras Systems IPO
Lior Susan’s firm achieved a 17-fold return on its $147 million investment as public markets shift focus from software to hardware, robotics, and energy infrastructure.
Eclipse Ventures, led by founder Lior Susan, has realised a $2.5 billion return on its investment in Cerebras Systems following the semiconductor company’s initial public offering. The firm invested a total of $147 million in Cerebras over time, achieving a 17-fold return at the IPO price of $185 per share. This outcome serves as a significant validation of Susan’s long-standing thesis on investing in physical-world technology, a strategy that initially faced scepticism in Silicon Valley during the era dominated by enterprise software and software-as-a-service (SaaS).
The investment began with a $6.5 million Series A round in 2016, when digitising the physical world was considered an unpopular thesis in the US tech sector. Susan noted that public market sentiment has since shifted, with shares of TSMC and Micron recently hitting all-time highs. This reflects a broader recognition of the value in physical infrastructure, contrasting with the declining dominance of pure SaaS models as enterprises explore AI tools to create bespoke software.
Susan argued that while AI can generate code, it cannot manufacture physical hardware such as silicon wafers, which requires significant physical infrastructure including machines, silicon, and clean rooms. He highlighted that the real moat in software has diminished, stating that investors and founders are now recognising the immense value in companies operating beyond pure software, given that 85% of global GDP is tied to the physical world.
The momentum extends beyond semiconductors to sectors such as robotics, energy, and defence. Portfolio companies in these areas raised nearly $15 billion from external backers in the previous year, with late-stage momentum reaching $4.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. This surge stands in stark contrast to the firm’s early track record, where portfolio companies raised less than $4 billion in total over its first eight years.
Eclipse’s portfolio includes several major recent deals where the firm was the Series A investor, including $1.2 billion for Wayve, $650 million for True Anomaly, $270 million for Bedrock Robotics, and $200 million for Oxide Computer. Susan attributed this alignment of investor enthusiasm to five key forces: technology, capital, customer demand, talent, and policy, noting that the US government is encouraging these industries through subsidies and favourable regulation.
