Crow-Armstrong overtakes Ohtani as MLB MVP front-runner, Alvarez leads AL
With five weeks remaining in the 2026 regular season, ESPN’s latest analysis indicates a shift in the National League MVP race, while Yordan Alvarez maintains a dominant statistical lead in the American League.
The 2026 Major League Baseball season has entered its final stretch, with five weeks remaining in the regular schedule. According to ESPN’s August awards analysis, the landscape for individual accolades has shifted significantly, particularly in the National League MVP race where Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs has emerged as the clear front-runner.
Crow-Armstrong has surpassed Shohei Ohtani in the AXE rating system, a change that occurred on 21 July. The shift was subsequently reflected in betting markets on 5 August, following a high-profile head-to-head duel at Wrigley Field. Ohtani’s standing has been impacted by a left knee irritation that has limited him to designated hitter duties for over seven weeks, with the two-way star not pitching since 3 July.
In the American League, Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros has maintained the top spot in the AXE MVP leaderboard every day since 11 July. Alvarez is on a trajectory to win the Triple Crown, currently leading the league in batting average, home runs, and runs batted in. His consistent performance has solidified his position as the primary candidate for the award, despite a slight reduction in his home-run lead over Tampa Bay Rays’ Junior Caminero.
The Cy Young races in both leagues remain tightly contested. In the American League, New York Yankees’ Cam Schlittler and Toronto Blue Jays’ Dylan Cease are neck-and-neck, tied in leading versions of wins above replacement. In the National League, Philadelphia Phillies’ Cristopher Sanchez leads the AXE ratings, but Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers is the frontrunner in non-analytics metrics, boasting a 1.68 earned run average and a 39 per cent strikeout rate.
Rookie of the Year honours are also subject to intense scrutiny. Kevin McGonigle of the Detroit Tigers leads the American League race, while JJ Wetherholt of the St. Louis Cardinals tops the National League leaderboard. Wetherholt’s lead has been consistent since May, though his offensive production has slowed since the All-Star break, with his rating sustained by elite defensive metrics and baserunning.
For the Manager of the Year award, Will Venable of the Chicago White Sox leads the American League, while Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers is on the verge of becoming the first manager to win the honour three seasons in a row. ESPN notes that none of the awards races are completely settled, with the final five weeks of the season likely to determine the ultimate recipients.
