Contrary Research Warns US Missile Stockpiles Face Critical Depletion Amid Supply Chain Fragility
A June 2026 analysis by Contrary Research highlights that US munitions reserves have declined significantly due to global conflicts, with estimates suggesting depletion in a Pacific conflict within three days.
A report published on 3 June 2026 by Contrary Research warns that US munitions stockpiles have declined significantly due to involvement in recent global conflicts, with estimates suggesting depletion in a Pacific conflict within three days. The analysis identifies ammonium perchlorate (AP) production as a critical bottleneck, noting that only one US facility, American Pacific Corporation, produces the chemical as of May 2026. The report argues that transitioning to liquid-propulsion missiles, which use widely available hydrocarbon fuels and peroxide, offers a faster and more scalable solution to rebuild stockpiles than expanding solid-rocket motor production.
The Contrary Research report, titled "The American Missile Crisis", details the current state of the US missile industrial base, highlighting a concentration of SRM production among major primes: L3Harris (which spun off its missile business, Missile Solutions, in May 2026 with a $1 billion Department of War investment) and Northrop Grumman (which acquired Orbital ATK in 2018). New entrants ("neoprimes") are attempting to scale production, including Anduril (acquiring Adranos for SRM capabilities), Castelion (building a manufacturing campus in New Mexico for its Blackbeard hypersonic missile), Galadyne (developing liquid-propulsion missiles using kerosene and hydrogen peroxide), and X-Bow (using 3D printing for SRMs).
The Trump Administration called for a three-to-four-fold increase in missile production in April 2026, though analysts estimate decades are needed to rebuild stockpiles. Northrop Grumman petitioned the Federal Trade Commission in April 2026 to drop a consent order requiring it to supply SRMs to competitors on a non-discriminatory basis, a move opposed by Lockheed Martin. L3Harris is spinning off its missile motor business via an IPO, with the Pentagon taking a $1 billion stake.
The report argues that transitioning to liquid-propulsion missiles, which use widely available hydrocarbon fuels and peroxide, offers a faster and more scalable solution to rebuild stockpiles than expanding solid-rocket motor production. It details the capabilities of various defence contractors, including L3Harris, Northrop Grumman, Anduril, and Galadyne, in the context of this supply chain shift.
The Contrary Research report highlights the fragility of the US missile supply chain, particularly the reliance on a single producer of ammonium perchlorate. It advocates for a strategic shift towards liquid-propulsion missiles as a means to bypass this bottleneck and accelerate production capabilities. The analysis underscores the need for coordinated policy and industrial action to address these vulnerabilities.
The report notes that while solid-rocket motors remain dominant for certain applications, the supply chain constraints pose a significant risk to national security. The proposed shift to liquid propulsion aims to leverage existing commercial supply chains for hydrocarbons and peroxide, potentially reducing production timelines from years to months.
Contrary Research's findings suggest that the current approach to missile production is unsustainable in the face of potential high-intensity conflicts. The report calls for immediate attention to supply chain diversification and the adoption of alternative propulsion technologies to ensure adequate munitions reserves.
