Computer model predicts Schauffele stumble as Aberg emerges as U.S. Open contender
Scottie Scheffler remains the betting favourite, but data-driven forecasts suggest Ludvig Aberg’s recent form positions him as a top-three threat, while Xander Schauffele faces a difficult run.
The 2026 U.S. Open is scheduled to commence on Thursday, 18 June at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York. This marks the sixth time the venue has hosted the championship, with the previous iteration in 2018 resulting in a victory for Brooks Koepka at 1 over par. As the field prepares for one of golf’s most demanding courses, betting markets and analytical models are beginning to crystallise around specific contenders.
Scottie Scheffler is currently the favourite in betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook at +550. Other notable favourites include Masters winner Rory McIlroy at +900 and Koepka at +3000, while PGA Championship winner Aaron Rai is listed as a longshot at +6000. The odds reflect a competitive landscape, though data-driven projections offer a different perspective on potential outcomes.
A computer model developed by Mike McClure, which has simulated the tournament 10,000 times, has generated surprising projections for the upcoming event. The model, which claims to have accurately predicted 17 majors including the 2026 Masters, suggests that Xander Schauffele will finish outside the top five. Schauffele, listed at +1600, secured two major victories in 2024 but has won only one PGA event since, the 2025 Baycurrent Classic during the FedEx Cup Fall.
In contrast, Ludvig Aberg is projected as a top-three contender despite a major championship record of 0 for 10, including a missed cut at last year’s U.S. Open. Aberg, available at +2000, has finished in the top 10 in six of seven tournaments between the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the PGA Championship. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained and second in total driving strokes gained, positioning him as a strong candidate despite his historical struggles in majors.
The model also identifies a longshot expected to go off around 30-1 who is projected to make a stunning run for the title. While Scheffler retains the favourite status, the simulation highlights a potential shift in momentum, with Aberg’s recent consistency contrasting sharply with Schauffele’s projected stumble. The full projected leaderboard from the model is available through SportsLine.
