Citigroup projects server CPU market to hit $132bn by 2030 on AI deployment shift
Agentic CPUs are set to drive explosive growth in the sector, with Intel expected to retain its market leadership position despite intensifying competition from AMD and Arm-based chipmakers.
Citigroup has forecast a substantial expansion in the global server CPU market, projecting the sector to grow from an estimated $29.3 billion in 2025 to approximately $132 billion by 2030. The brokerage attributes this surge largely to emerging demand for agentic CPUs, which are expected to experience the fastest growth within the industry.
According to the firm’s analysis, traditional general-purpose CPUs are projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 20%, reaching roughly $50.9 billion by the end of the decade. Meanwhile, AI head node processors are forecast to grow at a 21 per cent CAGR, climbing to around $21.1 billion. Agentic CPUs, however, are expected to deliver the most dramatic increase, with a 185 per cent CAGR lifting the segment to approximately $59.4 billion by 2030.
The shift in spending is being driven by major cloud providers redirecting capital away from artificial intelligence model training and toward production deployment. Citigroup noted that Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, and Arm-based chipmakers are increasingly focusing on CPU opportunities in response to this strategic pivot in cloud provider spending.
In terms of market share, Citigroup expects Intel to retain its leadership position, accounting for approximately 47 per cent of industry revenue through 2030. Advanced Micro Devices is projected to hold a 34 per cent share, while Arm-based processors and other competitors are expected to make up the remaining 19 per cent.
Reflecting these outlooks, the brokerage raised its price target for Intel to $130 from $95, maintaining a buy rating on the stock. Citigroup also increased its target for AMD to $460 from $358, while keeping a neutral rating on the company. Both stocks have seen significant gains this year, with Intel shares climbing approximately 195 per cent and AMD advancing roughly 98 per cent since the start of the year.
