CBS Sports identifies 138 FBS coaches facing job insecurity ahead of 2026 season
Florida State’s Mike Norvell, Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell, and Baylor’s Dave Aranda receive maximum ratings of 5.0, while historical data suggests high scores correlate with frequent dismissals.
CBS Sports has released its 2026 Hot Seat Rankings, evaluating the job security of all 138 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) coaches ahead of the upcoming season. The assessment utilises a 0-to-5 scale, with scores averaged from a panel of ten experts, to determine the level of pressure facing each head coach. While widespread coaching changes in recent years have stabilised positions for more than half of the division’s leadership, a select group of power-conference coaches now face intense scrutiny regarding their tenure.
Florida State’s Mike Norvell, Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell, and Baylor’s Dave Aranda received the highest possible rating of 5.0, indicating the greatest job insecurity. This unanimous rating across all ten experts underscores the urgency these coaches face to improve their results. Maryland’s Mike Locksley follows closely with a 4.9, while South Carolina’s Shane Beamer (4.3) and North Carolina’s Bill Belichick (4.1) also face significant pressure as the season approaches.
The ratings are derived from historical performance data, including win-loss records and years of tenure, with interim games included where applicable. According to CBS Sports, historical data indicates that coaches rated 4.1 or higher are frequently dismissed. Last season, five of the eight coaches who received a rating of 4.1 or higher were fired during or after the campaign.
Among those dismissed were Hugh Freeze, Sam Pittman, and Mike Gundy. However, the data also highlights exceptions to the trend, such as Oklahoma’s Brent Venables and Arizona’s Brent Brennan, who reversed negative narratives through strong performances. Conversely, a high rating does not guarantee retention, nor does a low one ensure job security. Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly held a 3.33 rating before his midseason dismissal, and Penn State’s James Franklin was fired despite a 1.33 preseason rating.
The rankings also point to potential for recovery, citing Louisiana Tech’s Sonny Cumbie as a case study. Cumbie held a 5.0 rating prior to last season but improved his standing to 3.2 after leading the Bulldogs to a fourth-place finish in Conference USA and an Independence Bowl victory. The full rankings, compiled by experts including Matt Zenitz and Brad Crawford, provide a comprehensive overview of the landscape before kickoff.
