CBS Sports Experts Predict Unpredictability in 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs
With the removal of starting strokes at the Tour Championship, analysts identify Scottie Scheffler as the primary contender while flagging significant risks for players on the bubble.
CBS Sports experts have released early projections for the 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs, suggesting the upcoming postseason will be more volatile than recent editions. The predictions, published on 12 August 2026, come as the PGA Tour prepares for the St. Jude Championship in Memphis, the opening event of the three-week playoff series.
The 2026 iteration of the playoffs is viewed as particularly unpredictable due to a structural change at the Tour Championship. The PGA Tour eliminated starting strokes for the season finale at East Lake, meaning all 30 qualified golfers begin on level terms. This shift removes the historical advantage previously held by top finishers, creating an environment where outsiders could challenge for the top prize, similar to Tommy Fleetwood’s breakthrough victory in the previous year’s finale.
Scottie Scheffler is identified as the primary pick to win the FedEx Cup, with odds set at 7/2. Although Scheffler has not secured a victory since the start of the season, experts highlight his consistent performance, noting five runner-up finishes and three additional top-five results since the major championship season began. The analysis suggests his dominance across multiple facets of the game makes a late-season surge, potentially culminating in Atlanta, highly probable.
Sam Burns is selected as the second most likely winner at odds of 33/2. Experts point to his recent positive form and a seventh-place finish at East Lake last year as indicators of his potential. The comparison is drawn to Fleetwood’s trajectory, where a history of close calls was finally broken by a major postseason victory. Burns is expected to benefit from similar momentum as the field narrows.
The predictions also highlight significant risks for other high-profile players. Wyndham Clark, ranked No. 4, is flagged as the most likely to disappoint after a recent slump that includes missing his last two cuts following a two-week period where he won twice, including his second U.S. Open title. Meanwhile, Keith Mitchell (No. 49) and Jordan Spieth (No. 54) are noted as having the most to lose. Both players are on the bubble for the top 50, a threshold required to secure entry into next year’s signature events. Mitchell has not qualified for the BMW Championship since 2022, while Spieth needs a strong finish in Memphis to avoid falling out of the top 50 again.
Justin Thomas and Tom Kim are identified as sleeper picks. Thomas, at odds of 70-1, is seen as capable of breaking into the top 30 to reach the Tour Championship, leveraging his history in high-pressure situations. Tom Kim, at 49-1, is already inside the top 30 and is praised for his ability to perform well when driving distance is less critical. The field of 69 players at the St. Jude Championship will be trimmed to 50 for the BMW Championship and finally to 30 for the Tour Championship.
