CBS Sports analysts narrow 2026 PGA Championship field using six statistical trends
For the second time, the Wanamaker Trophy will be contested at Aronimink Golf Club, but CBS Sports suggests the tournament remains a contest for long shots rather than established stars.
CBS Sports analysts have released a detailed breakdown of the 2026 PGA Championship field, utilising six specific statistical trends to identify potential winners at Aronimink Golf Club. The analysis, which examines the 156-player field, relies heavily on historical precedents from the last decade to determine which contenders are most likely to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.
The methodology begins by filtering out players outside the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), a criterion that eliminates notable names including Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, and Dustin Johnson. This trend reflects the dominance of elite-ranked golfers in recent majors, with five of the last ten champions ranking inside the top 10 globally. Furthermore, the analysis excludes players who lack a prior top-20 finish in the PGA Championship, a statistic that holds true for nine of the last ten winners.
Recent form also plays a critical role in the analysts' assessment. The data indicates that nine of the last ten champions recorded at least one top-five finish during the calendar year leading up to the event. Additionally, the model requires positive strokes-gained metrics over the three months preceding the tournament, with recent winners averaging +1.74 strokes gained per round. This benchmark effectively removes several high-profile players who have struggled to maintain consistent performance levels recently.
A significant finding in the report is the exclusion of world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler from the final shortlist of contenders. Despite his status as the defending champion and his victory at the 2025 event, Scheffler was eliminated based on his dominant performance last year, which the analysts argue makes him an unlikely repeat winner. The report suggests that while Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele have combined to win seven of the last nine majors, history often favours those flying under the radar.
The final criteria focuses on driving performance, noting that the tournament has shifted to May on the calendar. Since this change, recent champions have averaged +0.52 to +0.79 strokes gained off the tee in the months leading up to the event. Given that Aronimink is often viewed as a course that rewards precision, this metric serves as the final filter to separate contenders from pretenders, further trimming the list of potential winners.
Ultimately, the CBS Sports analysis suggests that despite the presence of star names, the Wanamaker Trophy is frequently won by long shots. The shortlist includes players such as Alex Fitzpatrick, who has recorded the most wins on the PGA Tour this season, alongside others who fit the specific statistical criteria of recent history.
