CBS Sports analysis predicts no NFL division winners will repeat in 2026
The Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers, and New England Patriots are identified as the most vulnerable defending champions, while A.J. Brown trade talks remain stalled by salary cap constraints.
A recent analysis published by CBS Sports indicates that none of the eight NFL division winners from the previous season are projected to repeat their titles in 2026. The report, part of the outlet’s Pick Six newsletter, ranks the Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers, and New England Patriots as the most likely to be dethroned due to a combination of roster age, structural instability, and increasingly difficult schedules.
The Steelers face significant scrutiny regarding their quarterback situation, with 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers returning for the 2026 season. Despite his previous performance, the analysis highlights the risks associated with an aging starter in a high-pressure environment. Similarly, the Carolina Panthers, who secured their division title with an 8-9 record in 2025, are viewed as vulnerable despite recent defensive additions such as edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd.
The New England Patriots are projected to face a substantially tougher competitive landscape. After benefiting from the easiest schedule in franchise history in 2025, New England will face a first-place schedule in 2026, ranked as the fifth-toughest based on 2025 win percentages. The team is also expected to cover the fifth-most travel miles, including international trips to Germany and cross-country journeys to Seattle and Los Angeles.
In trade speculation, discussions between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Patriots regarding wide receiver A.J. Brown remain stalled. The primary obstacle is financial; trading Brown before June 1 would impose a $43.4 million dead cap hit on Philadelphia, a figure that drops to $16.4 million if the deal is executed after that date. Consequently, negotiations are expected to intensify as the June 1 deadline approaches.
The newsletter also featured a hypothetical redraft of the 2023 NFL draft and win predictions for AFC North teams. Analysts suggested that the Indianapolis Colts would benefit significantly by acquiring edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., while the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns were highlighted as potential overperformers due to favourable schedules and roster health.
