Cambridge study: Fan travel drives 82 per cent of 2026 World Cup emissions

A University of Cambridge research team has published findings in the journal Communications Sustainability estimating that 82 per cent of the 2026 FIFA World Cup’s greenhouse gas emissions stem from spectator travel. The study, which also evaluated Coldplay’s 2024 European tour, introduces a framework for assessing the climate viability of mega-events by weighing consumer welfare gains against emissions costs.

The expanded 48-team World Cup is projected to generate 4.23 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, an increase of approximately 590,000 metric tons compared to the previous 32-team format. International fan travel alone contributes roughly 3.07 million metric tons to this total, a figure comparable to Iceland’s entire annual emissions output.

If the climate cost of these emissions were passed directly to spectators, it would equate to an additional $114 per match ticket on average. Despite this significant footprint, the researchers found that the economic benefits derived from the tournament exceed its climate costs, provided the social cost of carbon remains within current estimates.

The research highlights behavioural incentives as a critical lever for reduction, citing Coldplay’s 2024 European tour as a model. By utilising a dedicated app to compare low-carbon transport options and offering merchandise discounts for sustainable travel, the tour achieved a 46 per cent reduction in overall emissions. Approximately 98 per cent of this reduction was driven by fans voluntarily changing their travel habits rather than operational changes at venues.

Researchers proposed a two-stage economic framework for future events. The first stage compares economic benefits against the monetary cost of emissions, suggesting events should be scaled back if costs outweigh benefits. The second stage involves incorporating climate damage costs into pricing structures, such as levies on higher-tier tickets or broadcasting fees, to share the responsibility for indirect emissions between organisers and attendees.

Jackson Goldman, a coauthor of the study, noted that while large entertainment events generate sufficient welfare to account for their emissions, organisers and fans must collaborate to take responsibility for the carbon footprint. The team suggested that holding the World Cup in Europe instead of North America could have significantly reduced travel emissions, given that 40 per cent of international visitors are expected to arrive from Europe.

Professor Shaun Larcom warned that record-breaking temperatures may eventually limit how mega-events can be staged. He emphasised that if blockbuster events cannot manage their emissions, it offers little hope for broader climate action, urging a shift towards infrastructure choices and behavioural incentives to mitigate future impacts.