Bitcoin’s long-term holders liquidate $2.4bn as bear market signals deepen
Weak US employment figures and institutional risk-management protocols have accelerated outflows, pushing spot ETF assets down to $82.83 billion.
Bitcoin’s most committed investors, defined by on-chain analysis as those holding assets for at least 155 days, have sold approximately $2.4 billion in the past two days. This wave of selling coincides with a 12 per cent week-to-date price decline from an October all-time high above $126,000, while net assets in spot exchange-traded funds have contracted to $82.83 billion from $107.8 billion.
The selling pressure was intensified by weak US jobs data, including a February revision showing a loss of roughly 92,000 positions. This macroeconomic signal triggered institutional risk-management programs that accelerated liquidations across high-beta assets, with Bitcoin absorbing outsized outflows relative to equities.
Compass Point analyst Ed Engel highlighted a distinct behavioural shift in the data, noting that long-term holders were largely inactive from February through April before turning into net sellers in recent weeks. Engel described the move as carrying large implications for supply and demand balances, given that this cohort had previously absorbed every drawdown without capitulating.
On-chain metrics confirm that a significant portion of this cohort is now selling at a loss. The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio has moved into sub-1.0 territory, indicating that spent coins are being realised at a deficit. Research synthesising Glassnode data estimates that 39–43 per cent of the total bitcoin supply is currently underwater, approaching the 50–55 per cent zone that has historically marked final cycle lows.
Current estimates place 11.1 million bitcoin in profit against 8.9 million in loss. While the current drawdown from the October peak is roughly 52 per cent, materially shallower than the 77–85 per cent declines seen in earlier bear markets, several deep-value metrics are flashing readings associated with major bottoms. One composite metric is tracking at approximately negative 1.5 standard deviations from its mean near the $62,000 level.
Engel summarised the pattern, stating that top-buyer capitulation is a common theme in late-cycle bear markets. He expressed confidence that bitcoin’s bear market is in its late stages, suggesting this behaviour may signal the final flush consistent with historical bottom formation rather than a structural deterioration in conviction.
